TVG and NTRA are hosting a one-day free on-line handicapping contest this Saturday (and another a week after). Top 3 finishers will qualify for the National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas. Estimated first place prize in that tournament is $500,000. Sign-up, play along, and checkout the leader board Saturday night to see how we all did.
It has been about two months since I started handicapping horse races as a new hobby, and I am encouraged by the results so far. This past weekend I took part in round one of the National Handicapping Championship Qualifying tournament. The winners of round one contests face off in round two, where the winner will head to the national tournament in Las Vegas. In this year’s tournament, the winner won $400,000. Next year’s prize money should be a lot higher.
In this tournament, players must pick one horse to win each race. There are 10 races and you have a mythical bank role of $40. When a player chooses a horse, it is actually a Win/Place wager, meaning $2 to win and $2 to place. If your selected horse wins the race, you receive the fictional winnings for both win and place bets. If the horse comes in second (place), you only win the place bet, which is less what the win bet paid. But you still win something, which adds to your fake profit. Higher the profit, the higher your ranking. All things considered, I did pretty well (see image).
To advance, I needed to place in the top 20. I finished in 68th place.
I am certain I would have advanced if the horse I picked to win the last race did so, but ended up losing by a nose instead (see image). A win would have paid out over $50 dollars total, pushing me to over $80, enough to make it to round 2.
There is another tournament I am playing at Public Handicapper. This tournament has a different format, you only have to pick the winner of 4 races. If you are incorrect, you lose a mythical $2. The goal is to get the highest profit after 60 races. At Public Handicapper I am currently placed #661 out of about 4,130 participants. This tournament and ends in October.
I’m ready to try again this weekend in the other first round contest with NHC. I am encouraged enough to believe can improve on this past weekend’s results. While 68th place out of 200 entries and #661 out of 4,130 might not sound encouraging, I think it is very much. Remember that I have only been handicapping races about once a week for 2 months. As well as competing against other that have a lot more experience and they have most likely been handicapping this for years, if not decades. I missed advancing closer the national tournament by just a nose. And I’m still learning.
I am picking Nobiz Like Shobiz to win the Kentucky Derby, beating out the favorites Curlin and Street Sense. I also like Hard Spun, but I think he’ll tire in the stretch.
Later: Wow, Street Sense comes from second to last about half-way through the race to win it, over Hard Spun. Hard Spun didn’t tire and proved he belonged. Street Sense wasn’t lucky to get traffic to clear, other horses had great placement but didn’t do anything, like Nobiz Like Shobiz. Preakness in two weeks!
The 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday and if you’re a beginner horse player like me, then you’ll want to be prepared with your picks. The Daily Racing Form has a great Flash-based tutorial to help people figure out how to read Past Performance(PP) data. The problem beginners have with PP data is that it needs to present so much information in a limited space that the numbers and text, at first glance, seem to be simply thrown together. This tutorial reveals the method to the madness.
Later: Equibase and NTRA are providing free Past Performance data sheets (scroll down for the banner, under ‘Race Entries’) for the Kentucky Derby.
Over the past several weeks I have upped myself from a casual horse racing fan to actual horseplayer. I have always made an effort to watch the Triple Crown races, with my first being the Sunday Silence/Easy Goer battles. This year will be no different, the only exception being I’ll wager money on the races.
Each time I watched one, two, or all three legs, I wished I knew more about the sport, but never took the time to learn. That all slowly changed, first, about a year ago I discovered TVG on Comcast and I was able to watch many more races (and without the annoying human-interest pieces on NBC or ESPN) and gain a sliver of knowledge of the ins and outs.
Not being satisfied with little knowledge, I picked up a copy of the aptly titled book Betting on Horse Racing For Dummies by Richard Eng and my understanding has vastly improved, and a new hobby has been born.
In his book, Richard writes, “The type of mind that does well handicapping excels at crossword puzzles, riddles, or problem solving. You use your mind in an analytical manner.” As well as, “Horse racing is a puzzle in wich the pieces change shape, and the asembly is different each time.” That’s exactly what I like about this sport. I enjoy looking over racing programs or the Daily Racing Form to analyze all the information to make my picks. Another great thing is you get to see how your picks fare right away, not in 3 hours like other sports, and the next race is about 20 minutes away. There is a great challenge in handicapping that I am not able to accurately describe. But being able to look over all the information, know what it means, analyze it to the best of your abilities, select the horse you think will perform well, and then see them perform close to or exactly as you predicted is a lot of fun, because for that race and for those horses, you were able to figure something out, able to solve the puzzle, meet the many challenges.
I have already experienced minor (micro?) success in the short amount of time since reading Richard’s book, whether it be $175 Pick 3 win, $40 on a $5 ticket, or even over $1100 won in “Play Payout” at TVGFree.net.
But sometimes it’s not about money. One funny thing I have noticed is that I think I would still enjoy horse racing and attending horse races if I never won. The last race I attended I had a net loss of $57, thats wagers plus food and drink. Compare that to one decent seat ticket to a baseball game which costs about $30, add $10 for parking, and another $10 for one hot dog and one drink. That is $50 right there, and you’ll most likely have another drink and snack. And I bet the experience won’t be as entertaining as live races.
Another funny thing I realized is that I am now turned off to all other forms of wagering and gambling, even the lottery. I see betting against the house as throwing away money, but in pari-mutuel wagering, you bet against the other bettors. And if the other bettors aren’t as skilled as you, I think you have a good chance to make some money. Just like poker, except it isn’t lame or boring, and you don’t have to sit on your ass for 5 hours surrounded by men just to determine the winner.
If you’re interested in learning more, or already have an in-depth knowledge, feel free to leave a comment sharing your thoughts.